BOL Emerald Storm Watch Week 4

Storm
Nov 11
15 min read

Hello everyone and welcome to the start of Weekly content. My name is Storm or CTRL ULT ELITE your colour caster Canadian comrade here to show you my thoughts heading into tonight on every series that we have to play. This week I asked for people to give me their thoughts on the matchups this week and their overall thoughts on the season and I received 28 responses. I will do my absolute best to try and get weekly content out for you as thanks for this. Just a reminder that tonight is Otter Talk with Crewman and myself starting at 7:15 EST. We will be discussing the matchups this week in more detail and doing a League of Legends quiz. Whoever wins, I will contact to get themselves or their teammate an interview in my article next week. Without any further ado let's see how my forecast will shake up.

For those who are unaware here is the current bracket heading into our week 4.

Monkey Business vs. Conduit Phoenix

Prediction: 2–1 Monkey Business Lane to Watch: Bot Lane

Monkey Business has had a pretty blessed draw so far in the Emerald Division. Their two wins came against teams I ranked in the bottom five during the preseason, and even then, both of those series went to three games. When they finally faced a strong opponent in SYN Squad Zero, they were simply outclassed—failing to secure more than three towers in any game, even when those matches dragged past the 35-minute mark.

Still, there are reasons to be optimistic about the Monkeys. The brightest spot by far has been Slayer, their ADC, who has quietly put together an MVP-level split. He currently ranks second overall in the league and sits comfortably in the top 10 for damage per minute, gold per minute, and gold difference per game. Slayer’s performance has been complemented beautifully by Nahor, his support, who boasts the highest vision score per minute in the entire league by a considerable margin. This duo has been the backbone of Monkey Business’s identity, and they’re the reason most of the team’s wins have been possible at all.

The biggest mystery surrounding this squad is their Game 2 curse. It’s not just bad luck statistically; it’s a pattern. Moonshot, who averages a 4.0 KDA in Games 1 and 3, drops below 1.0 in Game 2s. zZoomy, the mid laner, also hasn’t delivered the kind of dominance I expected coming into the season. Against weaker opponents, we’ve seen them put on Lissandra duty instead of flexing the assassins and playmakers we know they’re capable of. Mango in the jungle has been steady but not spectacular sticking to meta comfort picks like Xin Zhao and performing well in the fundamentals. The team’s dragon control has been excellent, but the rest of their play sometimes lacks that killer instinct that separates contenders from pretenders.

Conduit Phoenix, meanwhile, have had a similarly forgiving schedule. The only top-10 opponent they’ve faced was their sister team last week, and that matchup was a clean 2-0. Their loss to CCI was particularly concerning, especially given how one-sided it was. The biggest issue for Phoenix has been their solo lanes. Punkyrus in the top lane and MelloDevils in mid have yet to find the kind of consistency this team needs. Punkyrus hasn’t had a single game this season with more kills than deaths, sitting on a rough 1.57 KDA overall. MelloDevils is showing signs of improvement after a strong performance last week on LeBlanc and Zoe, but their disastrous Week 1 still looms large.

That leaves Nasian, the jungler, as the real focal point of this roster. While many junglers are relying on AD bruisers, Nasian is running his own flavour of the meta picking Ekko, Nocturne, and Diana, and acting as the team’s true carry threat. Dorito Fingies at ADC, on the other hand, has played more of a supporting role—piloting utility champions like Ashe and Ziggs to help facilitate Nasian’s aggression. The formula is clear: Phoenix succeed when Nasian gets ahead, and they struggle when the map doesn’t revolve around him.

Lane to Watch: Bot Lane

If there’s one lane to keep your eyes glued to, it’s the bottom lane. This series is a clash of philosophies between two completely different approaches to the ADC role. Monkey Business are all-in on Slayer. Every draft and setup seems built around giving him the tools to carry hard scaling champions, ample peel, and a composition that orbits his late-game potential. It’s a blueprint reminiscent of professional play, where teams rally behind their star marksman and dare the enemy to stop them.

Conduit Phoenix, on the other hand, treat their bot lane as a means to an end. Dorito Fingies plays weak side often picking the short straw in lane to enable Nasian’s carry picks and mid-jungle skirmishing. This lane will be less about who wins the early 2v2 and more about who imposes their style on the map.

If Dorito and Nahor can keep Slayer locked down think Ashe arrows into Maokai CC chains then it won’t matter how much CS or gold he’s sitting on; even the best-scaling ADCs can’t deal damage from the grave. But if Slayer gets space in teamfights, he’s shown that he can turn the smallest lead into a game-ending advantage. This is his chance to once again prove why he’s one of the league’s best ADCs.

Final Thoughts

I’m taking Monkey Business 2–1. This isn’t just a pick of logic it’s a pick of belief. This roster should be performing better than it has, and Conduit Phoenix feels like the perfect opponent to force them to evolve. Phoenix’s macro-focused, jungler-centric playstyle will push Monkey Business to clean up their coordination and punish overextensions. That infamous Game 2 collapse? Maybe it’s a fluke. Maybe it’s growing pains. Either way, I expect Conduit to capitalize when Monkey Business falters mid-series, but ultimately, the Monkeys’ individual talent especially in bot lane, should give them the edge. If Monkey Business can finally put together a consistent three-game performance, this series could mark the start of their climb from a “lucky draw” team into a legitimate Emerald contender.

Dorado Gaming Iota Vs. IceBorn Kingdom

My Prediction:

Lane To Watch:

If the wheel blessed Monkey Business, it’s fair to say it cursed Dorado Gaming Iota. Dorado has looked like a top-three team since the start of the Emerald season, yet their schedule has been absolutely brutal. Weeks 1 and 2 saw them face the two other squads I pegged as the best in the league, and now, in Week 4, they’re matched up against Iceborn Kingdom, arguably the strongest remaining team in their section.

Dorado’s season has been a revenge tour since their narrow Week 1 loss to XSV Gluttony. That series lit a fire under them, and since then they’ve been unstoppable, winning clean, fast, and sometimes downright disrespectfully. The highlight? A mid-lane Garen pick from NBK that turned heads across the league. But it isn’t just flashy draft creativity Dorado has the stats to back it up. No opponent has managed to break double digits in kills against them, and they hold the fastest win of the season at a lightning-quick 20 minutes and 42 seconds.

Dorado’s dominance isn’t just mechanical it’s how methodical they are. They suffocate teams with tempo, pressuring early and snowballing advantages with near-perfect macro. While other squads stumble in mid-game decision-making, Dorado simply doesn’t give opponents the time or space to breathe. In my eyes, only XSV Gluttony can match their ceiling. Everyone else, including Iceborn, is fighting from behind before the draft even starts.

Iceborn Kingdom: Holding the Line

Iceborn Kingdom has had a solid start to the season, but their climb in difficulty is steepening week by week. They opened with a comfortable win over The Chosen Inters, then made headlines with a surprising upset against Moonlight Spire on stream in Week 2. But their Week 3 clash with XSV Gluttony was a reality check a 0-2 loss that was closer than the scoreline suggested.

The biggest standout for Iceborn so far has been Koopa, their ADC, who has quietly been one of the best performing bot laners in the league. His teamfighting instincts and consistency have kept Iceborn competitive even when outmatched. HamanKarn, usually known for his carry-style top lane play, has shifted gears this season into a more supportive role often taking initiator picks and playing for the team’s overall setup. It’s not the flashiest style, but it’s working for Iceborn.

Meanwhile, OTF27 in the mid lane continues to be the team’s engine. He’s been a rock of reliability, piloting strong control mages like Orianna and Aurora to give Iceborn late-game insurance and teamfight control. His laning fundamentals and fight positioning have been clean all season but he’s about to face his toughest challenge yet.

Lane To Watch: Mid Lane NBK vs. OTF27

This mid-lane showdown is going to define the series. OTF27’s consistency and teamfight prowess will be tested by NBK, who has been nothing short of a force of nature for Dorado. I called NBK my early-season favorite for MVP, and he’s proving that prediction right with every game. While xBKP got the better of him in Week 1, NBK has only leveled up since showing off a rare combination of creativity and control. His Sylas and Garen picks have been devastating, and his ability to flex between high-DPS mages and off-meta bruisers makes Dorado’s drafts unpredictable and deadly.

This is a matchup between two very different philosophies: precision vs. pressure. OTF27 wants clean front-to-back teamfights where he can set up the perfect ultimates; NBK wants chaos, forcing fights on his own terms and punishing hesitation. If OTF27 can weather the early storm and keep Dorado from running away with tempo, Iceborn might find a foothold. But that’s a big “if.”

Team Solo Invade Vs. Moonlight Spire

My Prediction: 2-1 Moonlight

TSI is the definition of high risk, high reward. They’ve had games where everything clicks where Sinja takes over the map on picks like Kassadin, going 10-0 and single-handedly carrying. We’ve seen Ambessa mid step up and turn fights no one else could. But for every highlight reel performance, there’s a game where the wheels completely fall off. His carry games are some of the best mid-lane performances in the league, but when he’s off, he’s really off whether it’s that disastrous Aurora performance or the puzzling Irelia mid against SYN last week. The same inconsistency shows up in the top lane with Smoke. When he gets counterpick or a comfort champ like Olaf, he looks like a monster. But when he’s asked to play weakside tanks Mundo, Sion, or Ornn his impact plummets.

And that’s part of TSI’s problem: identity. If you can’t play tanks, stop pretending you have to. There are plenty of durable fighter tops like Renekton, or Ambessa that can fit almost any comp. What this team needs is not another draft experiment or solo lane ego contest it’s clarity.

Because here’s the thing: RJ is the truth. You could make a real argument that he’s the best individually performing ADC in the entire league. He’s consistent, efficient, and somehow puts up incredible numbers even when his team is losing map control. TSI has a clear win condition sitting right there in the bot lane but too often, the solo lanes seem more interested in proving themselves than playing around him. If TSI can swallow a bit of pride, stabilize their early game, and let RJ do what he does best, they could easily take this series. But until that happens, it’s hard to trust them to show up for three games straight.

Moonlight Spire: Cohesion Over Chaos

Moonlight Spire, by contrast, just make sense. They may not have the flashiest laners or the biggest egos, but what they do have is cohesion a clear understanding of their win conditions and how to draft around them.

When Danny Phantom gets his hands on picks like Gwen or Camille, Moonlight adapts perfectly locking in a tank jungler, prioritizing waveclear, and setting up clean 4v4s around him when he creates time where the enemy is busy catching waves. When 0bongo and Eros are the focal point, the team pivots: drafting more frontline and crowd control to keep them safe while letting them scale. It’s not flashy, but it’s smart.

That’s the biggest difference between Moonlight and TSI. TSI relies on mechanical outplays and momentum; Moonlight builds their wins through planning and execution. Their macro play is deliberate they know when to trade objectives, when to play weakside, and when to pull the trigger. Even when they’re behind, they find ways to trade up or punish mistakes across the map.

The Decider: Consistency vs. Chaos

Ultimately, this series hinges on one thing which version of TSI shows up. If we get the “all gas, no brakes” version where Sinja and Smoke sync up and RJ gets space to carry, this could easily go the distance or even flip the prediction. But if we get the version that drafts themselves into corners and plays disconnected from their bot lane, Moonlight will eat them alive with better macro and cleaner team coordination. Moonlight may not win the early-game fireworks, but I trust them to win the series.

XSV Envy Vs. Imperial Gaming

My Prediction: 2-0 XSV Envy

Imperial Gaming may be coming off a confidence-boosting win last week, but they’re about to face a very different calibre of opponent. Their victory was hard-earned, highlighted by NFG Coyote’s monstrous Sylas performance in Game 3 and some surprisingly strong play from Monarch in the top lane. Individually, there are bright spots — but against XSV Envy, those flashes of brilliance might not be enough.

Envy’s 1-2 record is deceiving. They’ve been the victim of a brutal schedule draw, facing several of the league’s top contenders early. On paper, they look like a middle-of-the-pack team; in practice, they’re still one of the scariest rosters in the Emerald division. This matchup is less about whether Envy can win and more about whether Imperial can keep the game from getting out of control before the 20-minute mark.

Imperial Gaming: When Creativity Crosses the Line

Imperial’s biggest strength and their biggest weakness has been their creativity. They’re not afraid to experiment, but sometimes it feels like they’re drafting for solo queue instead of coordinated play. The Warwick top pick that worked wonders against Winfree last week? That’s not going to fly against Captfils. Captfils isn’t the type of player who loses lane to gimmicks he’s too experienced, too steady, and perfectly fine sitting under tower scaling for the late game.

And then there’s the Aery poke Jarvan. Look, I get it. It’s funny. It works in the lane. But when your entire composition falls apart in 5v5s because you can’t engage, it stops being innovative and starts being self-sabotage. Imperial needs to rein in the experimentation and remember that drafts aren’t just about winning lane they’re about giving your team tools to win the game.

In the Mid laner Azurexfire has the talent his laning and early skirmish sense are solid, but he’s struggled to translate that into consistent mid-game impact. Against a disciplined team like Envy, he’ll need to elevate his play, particularly around objective fights.

As for Flock and HunterXZ, the Imperial bot lane duo needs to tighten up communication and decisiveness. Too often they look hesitant on key rotations or late to back up their solo lanes. Against Envy, small delays turn into big punishments. If Imperial wants a chance in this series, they’ll have to commit fully to their calls and ensure they’re enabling their top side rather than waiting for plays to happen.

XSV Envy: Building Through the Fire

For XSV Envy, this matchup is another test not of survival, but of refinement. Their record doesn’t tell the story of how close some of those early losses were or how competitive they looked even against elite teams. What Envy needs now is a series to clean up the fundamentals and build momentum.

Their biggest weakness has been the early game. Envy often takes too long to get rolling, falling behind in gold or objectives before they’ve even hit their key item spikes. Against a team like Imperial, who thrive on early-game chaos, that can be dangerous. But if Envy can stabilize and make it through the first 10–15 minutes without bleeding out, the mid-to-late game should swing heavily in their favor.

This is a team that scales exceptionally well and knows how to play the map once they hit their stride. They just need to give themselves the breathing room to get there. My advice? Don’t take the bait. Play for control, play for scaling, and above all pick engage. Give yourselves the agency to dictate fights rather than reacting to Imperial’s chaos.

Because the truth is, if Envy play disciplined League, there’s no reason this shouldn’t be a clean sweep. Imperial will almost certainly throw something unconventional at them, but as long as Envy resist the urge to match weird with weird, this series should serve as a valuable whetstone a chance to sharpen their gameplay before tougher matches down the line.

Chosen Inters Vs Conduit Asylum

My Prediction: Chosen Inters 2-1

I’m going against the grain here ,I have The Chosen Inters winning tonight. As much as I respect my co-caster Cheong in the support role and like several pieces of this Asylum roster, I just can’t shake the doubts I have about their overall performance level.

Let’s start with ALF in the mid lane. The numbers just aren’t cutting it right now. Averaging 600 DPM with nearly five deaths per game and a sub-2.0 KDA isn’t the stat line you want to see from the centerpiece of your team. He’s been serviceable, but not the kind of mid laner who can take over a series.

In the top lane, Noble has been similarly underwhelming. He’s picking strong laning matchups like Gwen into Sion or Trundle into Camille, situations where he should be generating solo leads but those advantages just aren’t materializing. The only match where he truly looked like a difference-maker was against Monarch, who, frankly, has been one of the weaker top laners in Emerald this split.

Combine that with the fact that Cheong and Wren haven’t really had their breakout moments yet, and suddenly Asylum looks a lot less intimidating than their record suggests. On paper, they still have the edge ,higher team KDA, better objective control ,but the numbers don’t tell the whole story. My gut says this team is shakier than people realize, and that The Chosen Inters are poised to capitalize.

Why I’m Picking The Chosen Inters

The Chosen Inters have quietly been one of the more promising “bottom-half” teams this season. Starchild in the top lane has been consistently impressive, especially when given counterpick. Even when weakside on K’Sante, they're holding their own and when they gets to play for lane, they win hard.

Meanwhile, Jaycewith12Gauge in the jungle has been a rock for this roster. He’s not spamming the meta flavor-of-the-month picks he’s finding value on underappreciated champions and giving his lanes the tools they need to succeed. This kind of stability is exactly what lets a developing team punch above its weight.

And then there’s the bot lane ,they picked Kog’Maw. What more do you want? This team fights. Their damage numbers are higher across the board, they scrap more often, and the gold-per-minute between these two teams is nearly identical despite Asylum’s “stronger” stat profile.

In short, The Chosen Inters look hungrier and more cohesive. If Starchild can get a favorable matchup which they should against Noble I see them pulling off the upset.

Prediction: 2-1 The Chosen Inters

Sometimes you just have to trust the eye test, and my gut says Chosen want it more.

XSV Justice Vs. Crowd Control In-Houses Suppression

My Prediction: 2-1 Justice

Lane To Watch:

On paper, Crowd Control actually looks like the better team. Their numbers are respectable higher team KDA, more dragons, more towers, and better gold-per-minute across the board. They’ve only lost to good teams, and statistically, they should be the favorites here. But when you actually watch the games, the problems start to show. Let’s start with the top side. Baxel continues to be locked into weakside duty, almost exclusively playing tanks. While he’s serviceable on picks like Ornn and Sion, he hasn’t shown the ability to translate those picks into meaningful pressure or even consistent teamfight impact. When Crowd Control wins, it’s rarely because of him.

Lean Meat, on the other hand, has been his own worst enemy. Last week, he got invaded out of the game by Chukko and was basically not in the series at all. He needs to rein it in and stop forcing plays that the rest of the map can’t support and stick to things like the warwick that supports fighting.

And then there’s Festis, who has been… invisible. He’s not inting, but he’s not doing anything special either. His laning is fine, but he’s often late to rotations, slow to follow fights, and rarely the reason his team wins. For a mid laner, that’s a problem. Crowd Control as a whole feels like a team that plays the early game decently but runs out of ideas once the map opens up.

Justice: The Flawed Fighters

Justice, by contrast, is the definition of a messy but resilient team. They’re statistically worse than Crowd Control in almost every category, but they still find ways to win games they probably shouldn’t. Part of that is because, even when things go wrong, they don’t freeze they fight.

AMP carries the heaviest burden on this roster. As the team’s primary engage from support, he’s expected to start every fight and eat every bad angle. When it works, he looks like a genius. When it doesn’t, the scoreboard makes it look like a grief session. It’s a brutal role, but someone has to do it.

Malins, though, has been the real surprise. Coming into the split, expectations were low, but he’s stepped up as the team’s stabilizing force. His play has been more calculated lately better wave control, cleaner rotations, and an understanding of when to actually commit. It’s not flashy, but it’s smart, and right now, that makes him the difference-maker.

Justice’s main issue is that they tend to get behind early, but unlike Crowd Control, they’re not afraid to adapt. They recognize when to scale, when to pick fights, and when to let the map breathe. If they can draft for comfort and keep AMP on a reliable engage pick think Rell, Nautilus, or Alistar they should be able to dictate the pace of this series.

Final Thoughts

Crowd Control might have the prettier stats, but Justice has the better instincts. One team plays to maintain numbers; the other plays to win the game — even if it’s ugly. If Justice can target Lean Meat’s early junglers and slow the tempo, this series should tilt in their favor.

It won’t be clean, and it definitely won’t be pretty, but Justice should come out ahead in the chaos.