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The Storm Watch Week 6




Today is a special edition of the Storm Watch. I will review what the last two weeks of the season mean for every team. I will cover how high every team can climb in their division and how far they can fall. I will review who every team needs to beat for their own playoff goals and how many losses every team can take before playoffs are unobtainable. If you're curious to see my math, it can be found here BOLE Points .



Here is the point breakdown of a series:








Here is a reminder of how standings are determined/tiebreakers:

  1. Series Score

  2. Points

  3. Head To Head

  4. Tied Teams Head to Head

Playoff Scenarios for Every Team

Piltover

For Piltover 2, teams have officially locked playoffs in Clown Gaming Forklift Certified and Syndicate(formerly known as the I in Team). The last 2 spots of this group are up for grabs for most of the division as well DZG Arcadia, Bloom Abyss, Blue Pearl Spire and The Shadow Cows can all still make playoffs. Unfortunately with undefeated teams, we also have some teams without a win. Conduit Surge and Omega Gaming Soda Shakers can no longer make playoffs. Some teams have a much harder road than others but no team relies on other teams to lose if they can win their matches.


Clown Gaming


Clown Gaming has locked themselves into playoffs with their current record. They can end the season as high as 1st seed with a potential of 60 points. Clown has a challenging road for their final 2 weeks playing 2 of the current top 4 teams. Winning tonight against Syndicate locks them into a top 2 finish. If Clown were to collapse and lose both of their next series without a win, they could end the season as low as 4th seed. Clown Gaming will likely emerge from Pitlover as a top 2 seed. 


Syndicate(formerly Known as the I in Team)

Syndicate has locked themselves into playoffs with their current 5-0 record. They can end the season as high as 1st seed with a potential of 60 points. Syndicate has the hardest reaming season of any team in Piltover playing 2 of the top 3 teams currently in their divsion. Winning tonight against Clown Gaming locks them into a top 2 finish. In week 7 they play Bloom Abyss who is the last contender team from Piltover. If Syndicate were to collapse and lose both of their next series without a win, they can end the season as low as 4th seed with Clown also losing to the Shadow Cows. Syndicate also locks a top 3 finish if they win against the Shadow Cows in week 7. 


Bloom Abyss

Bloom Abyss with 24 points has yet to lock themselves into playoffs. Bloom needs a 2-1 series win to lock themselves into a guaranteed top-4 finish against either DZG or Syndicate. Bloom also can end the season in 2nd seed if they can get 2-0 wins and Clown or Syndicate lose in week 7 after losing to the other titan of Piltover. Bloom on the other hand can also end the season with just 28 points if they lose both their series against DZG and Syndicate without a win and potentially miss playoffs coming in 5th or 6th. This is improbable Bloom Abyss's stellar performance thus far suggests that they are all but assured of clinching a top 3 seed in the Piltover division.


Shadow Cows

The Shadow Cows are currently in 4th seed in Pitlover with 31 points and have 2 teams battling them for the final playoff spot. The Shadow Cows have just a 3-point buffer between themselves and the 2 teams below them but can be passed easily if they falter in the final 2 weeks. The Shadow Cows can also easily catch Bloom Abyss who are 3 points ahead of them, and have the tiebreaker over Bloom Abyss. Tonight is their best chance to claim a playoff berth as a win against Blue Pearl Spire would no longer allow Blue Pearl Spire to catch them. If they win out, the Shadow Cows can end the season in 3rd seed or possibly even 2nd depending on how tonight's match between Clown and Syndicate goes. If the Shadow Cows win tonight, they simply need DZG to lose a series to lock a top 4 finish regardless of how their series in week 7 goes against Clown Gaming. The Shadow Cows look to have the best chance at making it out of Piltover. 

Blue Pearl Spire


Blue Pearl Spire is currently tied for 5th, with DZG having 18 points and needs to win matches to ensure themselves a spot in the playoffs. They have the Tiebearker win over DZG if the teams tie in points. This week Blue Pearl plays the Shadow Cows the team they are chasing. They need to win this series tonight for a chance to stay in the playoff picture. This series makes or breaks their entire season. Even if Blue Pearl loses tonight 1-2 and gets a 2-0 victory over Conduit Surge they would miss playoffs having  27 points and The Shadow Cows would have at least 28 points. They would be relying on Bloom to go 0-4 in game score to gain a spot via tie breaker. Blue Pearl also needs to win next week as well vs Conduit Surge. A win tonight does not lock anything as they are so close in points with DZG and the Shadow Cows.

DZG Arcadia


DZG is currently tied for 5th with Blue Peal Spire having 18 points and needs to win some of their remaining series to get into playoffs. DZG has the playoff tiebreaker vs Shadow Cows. If DZG wins both their remaining series, they are not guaranteed a playoff spot. To have any shot at making playoffs first DZG must win in week 7 against Soda Shakers. DZG needs the Shadow Cows to lose a series to either Blue Pearl or Clown Gaming to catch up in points as well. DZG also needs Blue Pearl to lose Conduit Surge if they were to win in week 6 against Shadow Cows. This week DZG plays Bloom Abyss who is currently the 3rd seed in Piltover and 6 points above them in the standings. A win tonight greatly increases DZG’s playoff chances as it knocks down Bloom to a point where DZG can pass them as well as Blue Pearl and the Shadow Cows.

Soda Shakers

The Soda Shakers cannot make the playoffs as they have only 11 points and no series win. Their games in week 7 however, have major playoff implications. The Soda Shakers can ruin DZG’s playoff run by beating them in week 7. Tonight in week 6 against Conduit Surge is a match of pride and will probably be the best series of the season for the Soda Shakers.







Surge

Conduit Surge cannot make playoffs in Blue Otter League Emearld they only have 11 points currently and no series win. Their games in week 7 however, have major playoff implications. Surge can upend Blue Pearl Spires's playoff run with a week 7 win. Tonight is for pride against the Soda Shakers a win gives you some much needed confidence for your time in your next emerald league. 




Zaun

As far as the playoff picture in Zaun no team has locked a playoff spot yet for themselves and no team has been eliminated from playoffs either. It is entirely possible even for the teams at the bottom of the standings to make it into playoffs(granted it relies not just on them winning but other teams losing as well) and the teams at the top of the table can technically all miss playoffs as well. Zaun looks to be an exhilarating and close end to a season; every game and every point matters for every team. No team can rest on their laurels and relax its time to prove who deserves a playoff spot.


Omega Wooper


Omega Wooper is currently 1st in Zaun with 25 points. They can end the season as 1st seed with 2 series wins and reach up to 37 points. Wooper needs 2 individual game wins(going 1-2 in their remaining series) or 1 series win to guarantee a playoff spot. Wooper plays Horizon this week and a series win should be theirs to give them their playoff spot.  If Wooper goes 0-4 over the next 2 weeks, they can miss playoffs as 4 teams can pass them in points putting them in 5th or even 6th(as they would have only 29 points). Even winning this week does not guarantee a top seed in Zaun. Wooper plays Mint Spark in week 7 and that team is incredibly close to them in points and the two teams will probably be playing for possession of seed 2-3. Omega Wooper should easily claim a playoff spot in Zaun I would be shocked to see them miss playoffs.

Final Boss


Final Boss is 2nd in Zuan with 25 points having lost to Wooper. Final Boss needs Wooper to lose more games than they do to claim 1st seed in Zuan. Final Boss also claims a top 4 finish in Zaun with 2 game wins(going 1-2 in their remaining series) or 1 series win. Final Boss plays Mint OTS this week and this series has massive implications for both teams as Mint OTS narrowly holds the last playoff spot in Zaun. A win this evening guarantees a top 2 finish in Zaun as they play Paradox in week 7 and that team is struggling and the 2 teams below them play one another not allowing both teams to pass them.  If Final Boss goes 0-4 over the next 2 weeks they can also miss playoffs; 29 points and a 4-3 record would put them somewhere around 6th seed. Final Boss looks to be a top 2 finisher within Zaun I would be shocked to see them not finish as one of the strongest teams in Zaun.

Mint Spark


Mint Spark is 3rd in Zuan with 23 points and a 3-2 record after losing last week to Final Boss. Mint Spark plays 2 good teams in the final 2 weeks of BOLE Omega Wooper and a surging Monkeys Emerald. If Mint can win 1 of these 2 series, they have an excellent chance at making playoffs getting somewhere around 31 points but Spark only has a guarantee at playoffs with winning both their series. If Spark loses both their series Conduit Jiji in 5th has the tiebreaker over them if they tie in points and I would not be surprised to see that team pick up 11 or 12 points in their last 2 weeks of the season to tie them in points. Spark can also end the season as 1st seed if Omega Wooper and Final Boss both go 1-1 and Spark goes 2-0. Mint Spark looks to be the last team in Zaun with a solid chance of making playoffs.

Mint OTS


Mint OTS is currently the 4th seed in Zaun sitting at a 3-2 record with 20 points, very narrowly having a lead over Conduit Jiji and Monkeys Emerald. Mint OTS to advance to playoffs probably needs to win both their series in the final 2 weeks against Final Boss and Monkeys Emerald. If Mint OTS are unable to win this week against Final Boss they need Mint OTS to win against Monkeys Emearld or beat Monkeys Emearld in week 7 to ensure that Monkeys Emearld cannot catch them. Mint OTS also needs Conduit Jiji to drop games in their upcoming series they have only a single-point buffer, and Jiji is playing the 2 lowest-ranked teams in Zaun. My guess is that Mint OTS will miss playoffs finishing the season with around 28 points in 5th.   

Conduit Jiji


Despite being currently out of a playoff spot in Zaun Conduit Jiji looks to have an excellent chance at making playoffs; they will likely end the season at 4-3. They are just 1 point behind Mint OTS and have a much easier schedule playing Paradox and Horzion Gaming and also having the tiebreaker over Monkeys Emerald. If Jiji can win tonight against Paradox it puts immense pressure on the rest of the playoff hopefuls. Conduit Jiji needs to win more than Mint OTS in the next 2 weeks and have Monkeys Emerlad lose 1 of their 2 series. They can also pass technically and end the season in 1st place if the top teams cannot win a series or any team in Zaun if they cannot find wins. Conduit Jiji is likely to end the season in Zaun at 4th with 30 points. 

Monkeys Emerald


Monkeys Emerald is relying on other teams to lose games to make playoffs at 2-3 with 17 points. They are chasing both Mint teams and Jiji, Final Boss and Omega Wooper are out of reach. Monkeys play both Mint teams in their final 2 weeks. Points-wise Monkeys needs to win these series and must win at least 1 series 2-0 to catch the teams above them ending the season with 28 or 29 points. If the Monkeys win both series 2-1, they still can miss playoffs as Mint Spark has a 6-point lead over them currently and Jiji is also likely going to get 10-12 points and are currently 1 point ahead of them. So to make playoffs Monkeys Emerald needs Conduit Jiji to lose a series to either Horizon Gaming or Paradox, or have Mint Spark finish the season with just 1 game win in their last 2 series. I think Monkeys Emerald will end the season in 6th with 25 points.  

Horizon Gaming

Horizon is living on a prayer to make the playoffs with a 1-4 record 16 points and no tiebreakers over the teams ahead of them currently. Realistically, Horizon needs all 12 points possible(11 is doable) in their remaining games. For them to make playoffs this is what must happen in week 6: They need to beat Omega Wooper(the current best team in Zaun) without dropping a game, Mint OTS must lose 0-2 to Final Boss, Paradox must win a single game against Conduit Jiji(or even better beat them) and Monkeys Emerald must lose to Mint Spark. In week 7 Horizon Gaming must win against Conduit Jiji(if Paradox is unable to take a game win they must 2-0),  Mint OTS must lose 0-2 to Monkeys Emerald and if Paradox wins against Conduit Jiji then they must lose to Final Boss. I think Horizon will end the season in 7th with 22 points.


Paradox

Paradox will be blasting Bon Jovi as well to make playoffs being 1-4 and having 15 points. Paradox has a tiebreaker currently over Monkeys and no other team. More or less Paradox needs every team in the top 3 to win out and have every team below them lose a series as well as winning every game they play. In week 6 Paradox must win against Conduit Jiji, Horizon must lose to Omega Wooper(or lose in Week 7 to Conduit Jiji), Mint OTS must lose 0-2 to Final Boss, and Mint Spark Must win over Monkeys Emerald. In Week 7 Paradox again must win and this time they play Final Boss(who is a top 2 team in Zaun), must have Monkeys Emerald beat Mint OTS 2-0 and if Hoizron won in week 6 they need to lose in week 7. Paradox will probably end the split in 8th with 19 points they have not shown to be a competitive roster with Zaun.     

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