The Storm Watch Week 6

Hello everyone and welcome to The Storm Watch your weekly BOLE content. As always, I am Storm or CTRL ULT ELITE your author and colour caster. With just 2 weeks left in the regular season we are now approaching the end of season scenarios. I spent some time crafting this spreadsheet BOLE Points 2025 going over the possible points and will be referencing it throughout my article today. For those unaware in BOLE the top 4 teams from every group make the playoffs. The team with the highest point total overall will get first selection of what team they want to play so every point does matter, even if you have your playoff seed locked you need to show up and get a better seed!

Streamed Game: Conduit Sun Vs. Monkeys Paw

My Prediction: 2-1 for Monkeys Paw

As far as the series itself Conduit Sun should be the favored team tonight on paper having more series wins, games wins and better KDAs. Do I believe in Conduit Sun to win tonight? Honestly I think this series is a complete toss up and Im going to give it to Monkeys Paw because I believe in their bot lane more. Is this a stupid take? Yes it is but my gut says that Monkey's Paw are a better team than Conduit Sun and Im going with it.

Conduit Sun is currently third in Demacia thanks to their overall 3-2 game record but with having been dismantled their last 2 weeks and having dropped games to some of the “weaker” teams like Blue Saber & Draconic Conduit Sun looks to be in danger of dropping out ot the playoff race. This week Conduit has the chance to ensure their playoff hopes are completely in their own hands playing Monkeys Paw who are the last place team in Demacia. A win tonight puts Conduit SUN locked into playoffs with having 4 match wins in nearly every conventional scenario. 

For Monkeys Paw to make playoffs a lot needs to happen. First thing is that Monkey needs to get to 27 points(at 26 points you need every single team to split games the rest of the season in Demacia and 25 is not enough points wise) which means that they can lose just one game over the next 2 weeks. They also need Mint to go 4-0 which is likely. But Monkeys Paw also needs Conduit Sun to lose tonight 0-2 and then win in week 7 against Elysium 2-0. They need Draconic to not win a series and have SYN TBD win at least 1 series.

Both of these teams are struggling with consistency. But the best players for these two teams this season has been their bot Lanes. The ADCS in particular have been the superstars for these two teams Domination2340 the ADC of Conduit Sun has probably been the standout for this team and Maze for Paw has basically been the teams only bright spot. Domination2340 is ranked lower on the stats then Maze for what I can tell are a couple of reasons. Number 1 is that maze is dealing significantly more damage(like 200 DPM or almost 25% more) while farming the same amount of gold in shorter games but Domination2340 is doing double Mazes damage to objectives. Supports of course matter a ton when examining the bot lane matchup and BoldFont swings this all the way to me favoring Paw. BoldFont is ranked as one of the worst supports in the league having the worst vision score of any starting support, has the highest deaths a game of any starting support(with a game win) and is the only support in the league sitting with less then 10 assists a game. While Nahor of Monkeys Paw does not have the greatest support stats they are miles ahead of BoldFont with 33% more vision place a game, is doing again 25% more damage dies less and makes more gold. I have to give the advantage to Monkeys Paw with this both support and ADC have better stats and have not had to be the 1v9 heroes in their wins.    

As far as the rest of the map is concerned we have Cptfill Vs. Nitrodax5 in the top lane which should be battle of the counterpick between two players who play few tanks and more towards fighters and Monkeys Paw has red side in games 1 & 3 as well giving them last pick counter option. The mid jungle duo is much more favoured towards Conduit Sun. Myth should be a much weaker jungler for the side of Paw and I believe that LLClasper should be able to build up a lead for Sun here especially if Myth is forced to pick some stupid jungle “flex” like pantheon. Desirin for Paw has also found success on very few champions this BOLE season so ProtoMorph with their gitangic champion pool should be able to find an edge. Despite the stronger mid jungle of Conduit Sun with what i believe to be a better Bot lane and the ability to draft a winning matchup top lane I think Monkey's Paw can pull off an upset here and get their FantasyLand playoff run going.

Blue Saber Wolves Reborn Vs. SYN TBD

My prediction: 2-1 SYN TBD

This matchup tonight has huge playoff implications for both of these teams that are getting hot at the right time. Both teams are 2-1 in the past 3 weeks of play.  The Blue Saber Wolves have just 17 points currently and need every point they can get if they want a chance at making the playoffs. For SYN TBD a series win guarantees you a playoff spot and the ability to lock down the second seed in Demacia, giving you the best chance at selecting a weaker third seed to play in round one of the playoffs. 

Both TBD and BSW(Blue Saber Wolves) are teams that actually challenged the Crashouts in their series against them and again would be teams I would be predicting to make playoffs easily if they were not in this group of death. TBD and BSW took an inhib and a Baron against the Crashouts, something only they have done. Both teams have players in the top 20 of our stats with Crash the Mid Laner of BSW having an 80% kill participation the highest in the entire league as well as being top 10 in DPM. Koopa the ADC of SYN TBD is also in the top 20 players in the league having one of the highest KDAs in the league at 5.6. The two teams draft and play differently as well BSW play much more towards fighters and skirmish style compositions without a traditional frontline, whereas SYN are a team that play more towards counterpick drafting lots of artillery mages and junglers with high impact ultimates to play around objectives. 

I think that in all honesty that SYN are going to get challenged this series by these things but ultimately SYN will prevail over the BSW. Koopa and Xvii for SYN are not a bot lane that should get pushed around and Sean can play very irregular counter picks forcing Mystic to wait later in the draft and giving SYN time to ban more of their champion pool. I also favour Guo over Shadow, as Shadow is often playing very low economy champions like Ivern and Maokai, whereas Guo is playing more proactive champions. I would not sleep on this BSW team they are for sure a team that can ruin the Demacia rankings and can make a run to the playoffs.  

Draconic Spire Vs. Elysium Encore

My prediction: 2-1 Elysium Encore

Speaking of teams heating up at the right moment, Draconic Spire has won their last 2 series after starting the split 0-3 and are currently 4th in Demacia looking to secure their playoff spot having just a single point advantage over 3 teams. Tonight they play Elysium Encore who picked up a much needed 2-0 last week against Monkeys Paw after loosing 3 series straight. Both teams are right in the middle of the pack and with this group every point matters. Losing this series tonight means that you need to win next week with a 2-0 to have any sort of shot at making playoffs in this group. 

So do I think that Craconic Spire has cracked the code and are ready to burst onto the scene? Peanut the teams new ADC is 4-1 since joining this team but no, this is still the team of how hard can our jungler carry us. List Saelor the jungler of Draconic Spire is playing insane League of Legends. Saleor is rated as a top 3 jungler in the league for a reason and with 79% kill participation Saelor is the one making the moves. Saelor is doing the most damage a minute to enemy champions on his team(he's the jungler with the highest DPM) and is getting DS 2.4 dragons a game. When you look at the overall team stats, this team stinks. They average 5 towers a game(lowest in their group outside of Paw who has just 1 series win). In a 5v5 team game Elysium are the better team. You have 2 reliable carries in Dilly and WaterCat, Humor the Encores new top laner looked fantastic last week and the team makes sense. Listen there is a clear target on who to ban and focus this game Elsyium I believe you can pull this win out.

Monkeys Cheer Vs. Mint Crashouts

My prediction: 2-0 Mint Crashouts

As far as playoff aspirations are concerned ,Mint has locked the first seed in Demacia but can make an undefeated regular season run so I do not see them slowing down. As far as Monkeys Cheer they have to play the 2 strongest teams left in Demcia and probably need to win a full series against SYN TBD and take a game off Mint tonight to make the playoffs.

Mint is getting an X-0 prediction from me until this team plays another team I put into my S tier. I think this Mint Team is so far above just about every other team. Like look at the top 20 players. 4 of them are Mint players and the only top laner in the top 20 is the Mint top laner. They have the league's highest KDA as a team, take the most towers a game, farm the most CS basically name a stat and Mint is king of it. The player “missing” is Zuiy who has decided that Karma is hella sick this year and is playing more of a team role. Monkeys Cheer its safe to say is collapsing loosing their last 3 matches to what I would argue would be the 3 worst teams in Demacia. May your end be merciful to the Crashouts. Cheers. Best of luck next season.

Team Mid Only Vs. Bing Chillers Winsons Winions

My prediction: 2-0 Bing Chillers Winson’s Winson

As far as playoff implications go tonight, the BCWW have locked a top 3 spot in this group but a series win gives you the chance to catch the Soot Sprites. For Team Mid Only you are competing directly with Original SYN for the last playoff spot(and sort of Monkeys Manor). A game win tonight is needed to give you any sort of chance at closing the point gap.

So with team stats now enabled we can see just how good this Winson Winions team are and they are an S tier team for sure. They had the second-highest team KDA, and no one else is even close to them(other than MINT, who they are chasing). BCWW also takes the most dragons a game with 3.6?!?! Just a reminder this team had the two weakest teams in their group surrender to them. These stats are against good teams. I honestly think that this Mid Only team is screwed they have yet to take a game off one of the playoff teams in this group loosing 0-2 to both Oringal Syn and TSS and have the worst towers taken a game and dragons taken a game of any team looking to make the playoffs. If I am looking at who can step up and provide that upset potential for Mid Only its got to be GGnoRematch in the top lane. Embrace the evil counterpick play barrier Warwick and cheese the wins out my man. 

Original SYN Vs. Maelstrom Esports

My prediction: 2-0 Original SYN

For Original SYN a series win tonight more or less locks you into the playoffs. For Maelstrom playoffs are not obtainable so these last two weeks are for pride. 

Although Original SYN has not taken a game off of one of the other playoff teams losing 0-2 to both TSS and the Soot Spirtes it doesn't change the fact that OSYN has also won 2-0 in every match that they have played. While this new Maelstrom roster is 1-1 since forming, they lost to a team that OSYN beat 2-0 convincingly just a few weeks before tonight, so they come in as the heavy favourites. 

The Shattered Spire Vs. Goon Squad Gaming

My prediction: 2-0 for The Shattered Spire 

For playoff implications, Goon Squad is out of the playoffs therefore this does not matter to them. For TSS tonight is a chance to move up your group and have a chance at getting an easier round 1 opponent. Surprising absolutely no one, I think it is fair to say we all expect a 2-0 from this matchup for TSS. One of the better teams in the league is playing arguably one of the worst teams, so a dominant 2-0 is the expectation. Goon Squad has yet to win a game and has not taken a baron, inhib or more than 4 towers in a single game. 

Monkey's Manor Vs. Syndicate Soot Sprites

My prediction: 2-0 Syndicate Soot Sprites

Monkey's Manor are in Fantasy Land territory to make the playoffs. First off, they must win both of their remaining series 2-0 in order to catch up to the top 4; losing a single game means you cannot get the points to pass Original SYN who has the tiebreaker over you. They also need Original SYN to go 0-4 over the next 2 weeks, and for Mid Only to lose tonight 0-2 to the Winson Winions. If all of this happens Monkeys Manor makes the playoffs by a single point. For the Soot Sprites you have 2 teams chasing you looking for the top spot in your group so winning out is imperative.     

As far as the actual matchup goes again the Soot Sprites should be expected to dominate. The SSS have double the KDA of Monkey Manor, take 3 towers a game more and average an extra dragon a game. Looking at the individuals Monkeys Manor are not doing hot no one on this starting roster is even close to cracking the top 100 whereas the Soot Sprites have players in the top 20. Even looking at the wins that Monkeys Manor have gotten its on things that component teams would be banning away from them like Garen from Seaboyer.  

Jolly Rogers Flying Dutchman Vs. Team Solo Invade

My prediction: 2-0 For Team Solo Invade

The Jolly Rogers are without a game win and cannot make the playoffs. For Team Solo Invade tonight are crucial points to get you into the top 4 as you compete with 6 teams for 3 spots.

For TSI the last 2 weeks have been rough, losing to both TTM and Greed showing that Just RJ cannot just streamroll his way over higher-level competition. But tonight in all honesty, is a reprieve from this as you play a botlane that would be similar to those seen in the Premier League for power. TSI have way better players and team stats tonight should be a simple 2-0 win for you. Just please do your research this Jolly Rogers team has players that are very skilled at niche champions that you might not be ready for if caught unaware. On the side of Jolly Rogers, ensure that your team can lane equally and enter teamfights in a position where you can win. Look for Cake22 and Waymo to be the carries and ensure your team has the ability to support them. 00seraph while I do love to see things like the Vayne make sure your draft can support it and it's not taking advantages away from your teammates.   

XSV Greed Vs. Dorado Gaming Mu

My prediction: 2-0 XSV Greed

For Dorado Gaming Mu you probably need the most things to go right in order to make the playoffs. First off you need to win every game you play to get to 3-4 in match score. That gives you 27 points, which means that you need teams at the top like TTM, Gluttony and Greed to win out while TSI, TILT and Monkeys Goons needs to lose almost all of their games. So for week 6 you need Jolly Rogers to win tonight against TSI 2-0, have the Goons beat TILT 2-0. Then in week 7 you need to beat Jolly Rogers 2-0, have TILT win 2-1 over TSI and have Gluttony beat the Goons. For XSV Greed you are chasing a top 4 finish. A win tonight puts you into playoffs in most scenarios and effectively eliminates the Goons and Dorado Gaming. 

XSV Greed have had an excellent season so far just dropping a series to the Monkeys Goons and making the change to a new starting jungler in WheelChair JG. While no one on this Greed team is in the top 20 players Kazz the teams ADC is top 10 in DPM, Gold a minute and kills a game so they should probably be up there. This Dorado team has had roster issues all split, replacing any players who had standout weeks and then failed to reach those levels, so they have no one in the top 100 let alone the top 20. When I look at the last couple of games this Dorado team has played I just worry about them there's not a lot of innovative picks coming out and drafts with huge weaknesses. XSV Greed again I trust their carries to perform and they can draft counters to well-established meta picks.  

XSV Gluttony Vs. TTM Aegaeon

My prediction: 2-1 TTM

So TTM has not dropped a series yet but they play probably the two best teams in their group in the final 2 weeks in XSV Greed and XSV Gluttony. These matchups are more or less going to dictate who is making it out of this group as the first seed and who will get the second and third seeds. For Gluttony this is the chance to take first a single game win this evening gives you the point total to lock a playoff spot. 

Team-wise TTM has the clear stat totals they are as an undefeated team ranked third in just about every stat category. They have a higher team KDA thanks to the fact that they die 7 times less per game on average, TTM gets more 1 more tower a game on average has the same dragons a game taken as GLUT and they take more Inhibs. For Gluttony their best performing players according to the stats are  Matty and Avi their bot lane. Matty is top 10 in DPM, kills a game and gold per minute, while Avi has top 10 assist per game numbers and is third in vision score. VF DLambo the ADC of TTM is also top 10 in multiples of these categories as well as being top in DPM, Gold and is 2nd in the league at CS a minute. Professor the teams mid laner as well as ΣΠΑΡΤΙΑΤΗΣ also are top in gold difference a game as well showing that TTM has multiple lanes that they are playing through. Gluttony are a team that drafts towards their bot lane most games and ensuring that Xbkp has a good mid lane matchup as well.

As far as how the game actually goes I think that mid lane and jungle where there will be the most action. xBKP of GLUT has shown that they play a select few champions only having played 5 champions this split and many of them Professor the mid laner of TTM also plays like Syndra and Sylas so drafts might get pinched and teams might want to consider early picking these champions. The jungle matchup I feel though is where things get very interesting as ΣΠΑΡΤΙΑΤΗΣ is a complete feast or famine player. They also lean into this playstyle picking things that are snowball focused like full ap Gragas, the statchecking Warwick or even Reksai the infamous useless past 25 minutes assassin. For GLUT Discrepancy has only been playing selfless junglers taking the engage options of Ammumu or Trundle Jungle and is all about utility. Its clear that if ΣΠΑΡΤΙΑΤΗΣ cannot make big things happen with their picks than the utility and cc Discrepancy provides will easily turn the game. Despite this I think I like TTM to win this I think that this team has shown that they can win through multiple lanes and is more flexible in their draft so far. GLUT has the ability to dominate these games early but if TTM can ensure that they can keep Matty down in gold and not let them snowball I think GLUT is in trouble in the late game.       

Tilt World Enders Vs. Monkeys Goons

My prediction: 2-1 Goons

An incredibly close series between two teams that are currently tied in points and both teams are eagerly fighting for the 4th seed this matchup promises to be a banger. TILT and Monkeys Goons more or less eliminate the other from playoff contention tonight with a win so this series is a must win on both sides.

So again looking at stats these teams are so close to one another in everything. Both teams average 17 kills a game, 18 deaths and Mokeys Goons get just 2 assists more a game. TILT kill slightly more towers, Dragons and inhibs but the monkey take more Barons and grubs. I think what really is going to decide this series will be the top lane. While Star Burriot and SLAYER for TILT have had a lot of good games they have had just as many terrible games as well. TILT has lost hard all year and probably continues to the team plays at an aggressive tempo and always will. The goons are similar they play with lots of skirmishing champions.  Rendelman the mid of GOONS has had some great games but when put onto more supportive style champions like Seraphine has looked terrible. I really feel this series will come down to the top lane. Fembop the new top laner for GOONS has a 3.95 KDA and is doing 800 DPM. Those are elite stats and WeatherNeck the top laner of TILT will not be playing tanks but going all in with picks like Aatrox, Jax and Camille. These two are going to fight to the death at every waking moment and dictate how this series goes. If I were playing in this series I would be looking to impact top lane and try to sway that 1v1 as much as I could.

The only reason that I am favouring Goons heading into this series is that I think they have the possibility of coming back in a game. Listen if TILT fall behind, just go next its absolutely crazy that they have yet to take more than 3 towers in a loss. If this series goes the distance, the mental aspect becomes so much more important and Goons have that edge.

Definitely Not Huarkan Vs. Bloom Gaming Wisteria

My prediction: 2-0 Bloom

Defintley not Hurakan has been eliminated from the playoffs, winning just a single series so far this year. Tonight Bloom looks to try to get to the top of the Freljord by taking a win over a team at the bottom of the standings putting the Conduit Gremlins in third place.

  Expect this series to be decided at the dragons as DNH take the most dragons of any non playoff team with 2.4 take a game. DNH nearly take as many dragons in a game as they do towers so expect them to be ready and to prepare for them. As Bloom you have this make sure to give Snooflepoof the respect that they deserve early game and this series should be a clean sweep. Look for side lane threats to ensure that Trixlar has the potential to pop off, wave clear is less important, I imagine this series as raw fighting strength. 

AK Hearts Vs. Golden Geese

My prediction: 2-0 AK Hearts

As free of a 2-0 win you can get for the AK Hearts. Listen I know you guys love playing game 3s but you really do need the 6 points in Freljord to make it into the playoffs. The Geese are not playing at an Emerald level and have yet to take a tier 3 tower. The geese are not flying anytime soon guys their kidneys have been stolen to make foie gras. 

Glacial Spectre Vs. Conduit Gremlins

My prediction: 2-0 Conduit Gremlins

For Playoffs both teams need this. Glacial has a very narrow lead over the AK Hearts, who get their free series win tonight against the Geese while your team plays probably the two best teams in the Freljord. For Conduit tonight is a series you need to win to keep up with the rest of the top table in Freljord. Its currently a 3 way tie for playoff control and being the group of life and having no choice is a sure to way exit in the first round.

After watching this Glacial team last week on stream lose to the Chosen Inters I lost all of my faith in them. They did not just lose games 2 and 3 but got trounced. No one on this team was on the same page whatsoever I saw the legendary Vayne Flash into 4 enemies to secure a kill. I watched your team put QueenStix onto junglers who basically are forced to turbo gank as they cannot keep up in farm something that has been happening all season. Just for this reason, I have Conduit winning there is no need to look at stats or talk about things. Glacial is not playing real league of legends they are playing 1v9 simulator. RobotSpaceBeluga needs to show more of that Mel level gameplay to get a series win tonight.

Chosen Inters Vs. No Quarter Gaming

My prediction: 2-0 No Quarter Gaming

No Quarter Gaming has quietly climbed to be at the top of this Freljord division and is performing. The Chosen Inters are coming off an upset over Glacial Spectre but have the toughest road possible to make the playoffs. For NQG just keep this up and you emerge as the number 1 seed from your group with the ability to hopefully draft a 4th seed that you can matchup well agaisnt.

For this series I see one way that NQG lose it. It's if NQG Wyvern in the top lane is unable to handle Soez of the Chosen Inters. Last week we saw in the drafts that CI are willing to pick SoEz very competitive lane counters and champions all about the side lane. NQG often play and draft around Wyvern being weaksided they need to make sure that they give some sort of help top lane or we might see a Yorick or something similar breaking the game wide open. But the stats and the eye test says that NQG should win. They die way less, get more kills, make more gold, CS better I can go on and on but every stat we track says that NQG are better than the Chosen Inters. I need them to prove that and restore my faith that some team in this group can win a playoff game.