Toxin's Gold Quarterfinals Predictions
Hello again, it’s Toxin! Last week I did pretty well with my pickems, getting 7 out of 8 picks correct, which is in the upper half of the league for their pickems. The only matchup that I got wrong was the Literal Monkeys vs Chubby Babies Shock matchup, which we will get into shortly. I’m not going to go into extensive detail about each Round One playoff matchup in this article, but I will get into how each team got their wins last week. If enough people bug me to do a write up on last week’s games (with standouts and a more in depth analysis of how each game went down) I’ll do it, but there aren’t any current plans to do so. Without further delay, let's just get right to the matchups.
(D1 #1 Seed) Oasis Nail and Day Spa vs. (D3 #2 Seed) Oasis Octane
Oasis NADS in 4
In our first matchup, we have the battle of the Oasis teams, with NADS going up against Octane. Personally I think this will be a pretty easy win for NADS, but let’s break down their matchups from last round. Oasis NADS went up against The Collective Esports last week and defeated them in 3 games. I did end up watching the last two games of this series, and the way they won their games was mainly due to an absolute draft diff. The Collective took leads early on in the game, but NADS was able to completely shut them out the later the game went on. Oasis Octane, on the other hand, had an extremely close match up against Chubby Babies Frost that lasted 5 games. The matchup was so close that it came down whichever team got blue side would win the game. The main reason why I think NADS will win this matchup is that I believe the Octane drafts don’t always succeed. I think Octane, CB Frost, and The Collective Esports are all evenly matched teams in terms of drafting and play, and thus I am going to give the same prediction that I made last week. I think that Octane WILL be better in the sense that they can win a blue side draft. However, it really comes down to their ability to win a game on the red side, which I don’t believe will happen.
(D2 #1 Seed) Mad Rawrs vs. (D4 #2 Seed) Scarlet Miracles
Scarlet Miracles in 5
I think the biggest key in this series has to do with what version of each team shows up. I’m pretty sure Mad Rawrs have scheduling issues based on the last few weeks for them, so I have no idea which players are going to show up. The difference is that they will NOT be able to get away with throwing in random subs in order to beat a team like Scarlet Miracles. If they do field their starting roster, this should be a close one. Scarlet Miracles also had a rough time closing out their series versus Dawnbreak Gaming after starting with a 2-0 lead. I will say that the Dawnbreak roster was highly underrated in the initial reactions, with people such as myself saying that they would lose 3-0 even though they had a roster with multiple plat players on it. With both teams able to throw a game or two in a series they have wrapped up, I think that ultimately it will come down to the 5th and final game, which I have more confidence in Scarlet Miracles in a game 5 situation than the Mad Rawrs.
(D3 #1 Seed) NSG Black vs. (D2 #3 Seed) Chubby Babies Shock
NSG Black in 5
What I find interesting looking at other brackets is that despite NSG Black being a number one seed in the league, no one is really expecting them to win this matchup. Unfortunately, I’m also on the “Division 3 sucks” boat, and I expect Chubby Babies Shock to win the series. Starting off with NSG Black, they were able to 3-0 Hyperion Gaming, which found themselves in a playoff spot after VBU Argon’s roster implosion. In hindsight, I should not have expected that matchup to be close (which I had said in my initial predictions) due to this fact. For Chubby Babies Shock, they proved last week that BuhRockObama diff is an actual thing, and the roster change significantly improved their roster as a result. This matchup really comes down to how big the gaps are between the two lanes. NSG Black’s bot lane is definitely much better, however the solo lanes for the Shock are also noticeably better. The game results depend on how the junglers are able to leverage these advantages. Personally, I think Anderson Cooper and BuhRockObama can find a way to win games when they have side selection. However, their biggest kryptonite is a strong bot lane, which is how they lost to NSG Gold and Twin Disasters earlier in the split. I think RedoMeToo and Grandfayte are an extremely strong bot lane from the results they have put up, and if they are able to keep this level of play up, they should be able to win the matchup.
(D4 #1 Seed) 3-0 Esports vs. (D2 #2 Seed) Twin Disasters
3-0 Esports in 3 or Twin Disasters in 5
Okay I’ll be honest, it’s a bit of a cop out to give two separate predictions for a matchup. However, in this case I think it’s fair of me due to the fact that my team is playing in the matchup. 3-0 Esports has shown that they are the best team in this league with their dominant performance throughout the regular season and playoffs, taking out Vitamin X in 3 games. To be fair, I think that Vitamin X was by far the worst team in the playoffs, however the strength of 3-0 cannot be overlooked. I think most people are writing them off as the overall champs or at least finalists, but I think there’s a genuine chance for us to win. The Twin Disasters took down Chubby Babies Cinder last week in four games, however their one loss came without their starting top laner Bastingleaf. When their starting roster was all together, they were able to win 3-0 against an opponent far harder than Vitamin X. Getting into the matchup, 3-0 Esports have a very clear weakness topside in Mr. Lean that can be exploited by Bastingleaf. For the rest of their roster, I think the matchups are very even and could go either way. I think that Kaiten is probably the better mid laner of the two, but 3-0’s bot lane is better (yes, I’m bad). If the Twin Disasters are able to win a game in the first two games, this matchup will go to 5 games and I believe in our ability to pull out with the win. However, if we drop the first two games, we will probably tilt out and lose in 3.
Matches to Watch
Obviously all of the matches from this point on are matches to watch, however the streamed matchups are Mad Rawrs vs Scarlet Miracles and 3-0 Esports vs Twin Disasters. I think the more interesting of the two as a viewer would probably be the former, as those two teams are the closest in skill level and have the biggest chance of having fiesta games. On the other hand, if you want to tune into the other stream and either flame me or see everyone’s playoff brackets bust when we win, that might be the move. I definitely think that the BOL staff made the correct decision in the streamed matches though, as the Oasis v Oasis matchup is probably the most boring matchup of the night. I think the Shock vs NSG match will also be a good watch, however we just saw Shock play last week on stream, so they won’t be streamed back to back.